A new report sounds more bad news for the Chesapeake Bay and the people who work and play on its waters.

"Simply put, we're predicting that it's not going to be a good summer out there for rockfish, crabs and oysters that call the bay home," said William Dennison of the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, which released its forecast yesterday.

The center is basing its prediction on the heavy winter and spring rainfalls that loaded the bay's biggest tributary with the sixth-highest amounts of nitrogen pollution since monitoring began in 1985.

In the past, polluted water from the Susquehanna River has magnified the size of the bay's oxygen-deprived "dead zone" in the deep waters of the bay's channel. The river drains a giant portion of Maryland, Pennsylvania and New York.

Nitrogen washed from fertilized farm fields and suburban lawns along the river feeds aquatic algae blooms, which use up the water's oxygen when they die. The bay's dead zone has become a summer staple on the estuary, sometimes stretching more than 100 miles from Annapolis, Md., to the mouth of Virginia's Rappahannock River.

The center is not predicting how far the dead zone will extend this year. Dennison said it will likely reach the state line, at least.

The forecast also foresees "low to moderate" algae blooms in the tidal Potomac River this summer. The Potomac's polluted waters have been a frequent target for red tides -- a type of algae bloom known for its color -- especially near the resort town of Colonial Beach.

It also predicts the recurrence of "mahogany tides" caused by a different algae species north of the Potomac. In past summers, algae blooms in the Potomac and the upper bay have closed beaches because of the threat of respiratory and gastric distress caused by toxic algae species.

Yesterday's forecast marked the fourth year in a row that the center has produced the report. Although its accuracy has varied, its dead-zone prediction has been on target. "That's been our poster child for accurate forecasting," Dennison said.

The prediction underscores the need for Virginia and its bay-state neighbors to control the sources of pollution that are choking the bay, said Mike Gerel, the Virginia scientist for the Chesapeake Bay Foundation environmental group.

The states have been working since the 1980s to restore the bay, with limited success.

"We've got more dirty waters [according to a state report released last week], there are catch reductions needed for blue crabs, watermen are struggling and there are fish kills in the Shenandoah and the James," Gerel said. "This just adds to the list of things that aren't getting better."
Contact Lawrence Latané III at (804) 333-3461 or llatane@timesdispatch.com.